Thanks for raising the point about collective action in the Ezra talk and now.
Focal points help overcome these problems, as you know. Carney invoking Havel at Davos was a clear attempt to create a focal point. It was highly successful, esp internationally, and Carney is perfectly-situated for this role, he's been planning this moment since before he even got into the race.
Now Goode and Pretti have created another focal point, domestically. The two reinforce each other: Italian politicians protest ICE at the Olympics, Trump skips the Super Bowl so as not to be booed and heckled in front of the entire world: focal points.
This is a moment to pull on every lever. No pausing to regroup, no waiting to see responses, step into the space they are currently vacating and then push even harder from there. Today we demand Noem, Miller, and Bondi all go. If that doesn't happen then starting making deals with congressional Republicans: what do they need to swing the Speakership to a Democrat?
If there was a Democratic leader, this might be possible, but Congress is devoid of such a creature in the House or Senate so far. Hakeem Jeffries didn't even try to whip votes when it came to I.C.E. funding. Schumer is a creature of compromise which is inappropriate for this time in our country.
Considering the thing you're advocating will never happen without new Democratic leadership, it does seem like the right time for a conversation about their failure to meet the historical moment. They don't have the juice.
I'll be direct: you are mansplaining politics to political science PhDs right now. Please stop.
Follow AOC's lead. She is not spending her time attacking Schumer, she is reminding people that party leadership reflects the party membership. If we want better leadership we need to build out the party. Henry has been writing about the need to expand the coalition for a year now. He is right. To defeat global fascism last time took a coalition spanning from Churchill to Stalin. AOC and Schumer are nowhere close to either pole on that spectrum.
Stay focused: the problem is the GOP. If we unite behind Schumer then he can shut down the government and potentially be on a path towards ending this before too many more bodies pile up.
If we cut out Schumer's knees the moderates will defect and we'll lose more ground.
You don't have to like him but this is not the time.
Academics are so funny because they think starting off an argument with "mansplaining politics to political science PhDs" is convincing and not something that makes you come across as completely unhinged.
I'll be direct: That's one of the funniest ways I've ever seen someone start off a comment in a Substack comment section. The stakes here couldn't be lower. There's an obvious contradiction between your self-seriousness and your clear insecurity. Self-awareness is not your strength.
Anyway all you're doing is theorycrafting and imagining that Schumer is a different person than who he is. My problem is not necessarily that Schumer is not AOC, or that he's a moderate. My problem is that Schumer does not have the juice. He does not have the verve. None of what you're armchair quarterbacking is going to occur with Schumer at the helm.
I'd be OK with a moderate in this current moment if they were an effective opposition. It doesn't matter if "we unite behind Schumer" - what does that mean? Us as in, people who post shit on the internet that no one reads? He doesn't care! It's up to Schumer to step up to the moment, and he's not. And he's not going to! He sucks!
I agree that now it is not the time. But I have been hearing that now it is not the time since Trump got first elected, and Schumer is still there. Maybe, when it is the time, the political scientists can get together and let the rest of us know.
Sure. The time is some point after progressives elect 20+ senators. Right now you've got 1, and he is only sometimes in the party. That help? Nobody's gonna give you a goddamn thing, you have to earn it. This is politics, you have to mobilize power.
We've got a good chance with Sherrod Brown, let's get to work on that and build from there. If Platner wins the primary and gets in that's another, and now we're getting close to a caucus that has to be taken more seriously. Hopefully some day soon AOC takes over from Schumer, but right now we have to get behind the guys we have.
Shumer's cleaved off DHS funding from the rest of the spending bill and got some pressure off Minneapolis. That's a big win already this week. Let's see what else he can get before we start getting pissed.
I guess we will find out tomorrow. As for me, I've written numerous letters to my senator without any response. He's one of those who sided with Republicans on the BBB that killed healthcare for millions with Senator Schumer. I've also called his office multiple times. As of last Friday, he hadn't issued an opinion, according to his staff. WTH? Hopefully, he will have made up his mind by now. I have no faith that he will do the right thing. This is his last tour so he has nothing to lose.
The alpha and omega of Trump's approach to governance is control of the media narrative, with himself at the center. Noem has gone all-in on generating content meant to make herself and Trump look "strong" but each cabinet member is on that page, except Vought. Being unable to mount a Minneapolis-sized presence in more than a few cities isn't seen as a weakness since the goal is a steady stream of controlled content, not subjugation. Plus meeting Miller's insane deportation quota numbers.
Trump's TACO on Greenland was a stalemate, not a failure, because Trump lost nothing (in his mind) while making himself the center of attention and speculation in media coverage. There will be other chances to make a Deal with Denmark. They can't exercise the power they brag about in fact, but they ultimately don't care about that. Trump and his party have bet that controlling the virtual power of media perception is how they control the public and the world, backed by the systems the US has built over the last 80 years to exercise de facto control. Pure short-term thinking.
Trump wants adulation first and money second (or maybe money first ...) but both more than power. Power's nice, but its appeal is that it gets him the adulation and the money.
We would already have full border security, and a court system capable to adjudicate all the immigrants' claims, peaceful and properly funded, if Congress had passed comprehensive immigration reform like Biden wanted (and every other President before him.) Instead, Trump told Republicans to reject the bill (sponsored by a conservative Republican, Lankford!), to get himself re-elected and make a murderous mess.
The funding demand now: Noem out, Miller out, Bovino out, Bondi out, Epstein files released, health care funded, and a special prosecutor established for Goode and Pretti and other abuses.
While those arguments are happening start making side offers to House Republicans who might be willing to switch to independent to dump Johnson.
What is likely happen in the meantime is that the Trump administration will try cosmetically to defuse the crisis by replacing the chain of command (Bovino already on the outs), announcing "investigations," and the usual hand-waving. In other words, standard fake damage-control by any White House.
What is unusual is that they were too incompetent to be ready to do this. Instead, they were falling out with blame for each other: from Politico, via Taegan Goddard's Political Wire:
“Key figures in the administration are pointing fingers at one another. Trump is blaming Border Patrol chief Greg Bovino. Bovino’s boss Kristi Noem is blaming Stephen Miller, per Axios. Miller is blaming Border Patrol. And Border Patrol is big mad at ICE.”
Yes, it's perfect. The circular firing squad has been activated at the same time that they are still lashing out at everyone. The split screen is impeccable, better than Watergate.
So now is the time to push, see if we can't knock down a bunch of dominos at once.
All they're doing so far is rearranging a few of the deck chairs. Bovino out, Holman in. Noem and DHS investigators out, Patel and FBI investigators in. Nothing of substance, nothing systemic, has changed, nor will change, unless the powers that put Trump on the throne feel the consequences of what they created in no uncertain terms. Someone in the Trump administration will be thrown under the bus. Probably Kristi Noem as she seems the most vulnerable. Maybe Bovino too. And they will take a step back for a moment, while at the same time never ever admitting they are wrong. Their arrogance, their greed, their hubris, their fear of showing weakness prevents this from ever happening. The power behind the throne is reckless beyond belief, as their choice of Trump, and allowing all of Trump's choices of all the incredibly unqualified cartoon-character-like villains -- Miller, Noem, Bessent, Hegseth, Kennedy, Bondi, Rubio, Lutnick, etc. -- that fill out his administration are proof of that. For what the patriots of Minnesota have done to lead to meaningful change, I wholeheartedly agree that the meaningful changes need to be institutionalized within both the opposition political party, within the law, and within the economic system. To say the least, that's an uphill battle, when the opposition party is dominated by a bunch of Quislings, the supreme court is dominated by a bunch of Federalist wannabees, and the entire political system is dominated by those select few who speak the only language that our politicians understand, that of the almighty dollar. It's no wonder that the elite who created this mess are constructing bunkers, islands, and space ships to escape it.
Looking forward to the podcast. I am worried that chance is playing a significant role. Trump overplayed his hand in Greenland, helping to galvanize European and Canadian resistance, but retains the option of turning to Iran. Seems a pretty obvious move and has been set in motion. Greenland is kind of like Minneapolis, if it weren’t for an overwhelmingly white face of resistance, lots of video evidence and two public executions one after another, public opinion might not have turned so hard. But they still have huge amounts of money and the ability to pursue deportations at scale but more under the radar. And it is easy to think of potential incidents that might play out more favorably for them. Maybe the extravagance of the Trump shitshow will doom it like Athens (which wasn’t such a great outcome), but the base does not seem to be wavering yet and until it does the Republican Party probably won’t either.
Economic pain would probably be the thing to make the ground under their feet disintegrate, or a military escapade that seriously backfires, but the economy so far is fairly resilient. A lot of fiscal stimulus, monetary policy poised to accommodate, oodles of private debt. But mostly I’m just in a sour mood.
There's no question that cruelty is a weakness, or at least a sign of it. With ever growing, sustained pushback, sooner or later, the regime will fold. We're already seeing cracks in the facade. For example, Trumpkopf sending Tom "Fifty-Grand" Homan to Minnesota instead of Puppy Murderer Krusty Gnoem. More dominoes will fall as we approach November's One Big Beautiful Blue Tsunami, and the regime panics. Admittedly, I'm not by any means 100% confident of this, but it seems to be where we're headed.
Thank you for this. I read the Seva Gunitsky piece, and his description of the present moment - through Carney and Thucydides - brought me a measure of solace by making my own inchoate analysis more grounded. It has not been easy to maintain my Pollyanna status that things will get better, but his and your writing helped a lot. I'm old enough to have been shocked that Nixon got reelected even after it was clear he was, in fact, a crook (the least of his sins), followed by a few years of progress until Reagan was elected. A long strange trip it's been.
Your conversation with Ezra was SO illuminating, thank you. Thank you, as well, for introducing me to the term “catchfart.” *filing it away for future use*
Cruelty is the point, but cruelty isn’t who we are. I’m currently reading Humankind: A Hopeful History by Rutger Bregman. If we learn who we are, we are better prepared to counter those who say we have no chance, that we have no cards. Collectively, we have more cards — and their Trump card turns out to be a joker.
We definitely need to be planning now for the future, but coalition building and sustaining is the #1 concern. Do we want democracy or domination as our form of governance? One important way to help plan for the future is to donate to Run for Something. I think if that organization gains greater power, we have a better chance of a stronger and more sustainable coalition.
"The weak do not need to suffer so long as there are enough of them and they can get organized."
The Chinese Communist Party figured this out - prevent organization. But then, their country has a long history of the Mandate of Heaven being withdrawn from the Emperor.
Hopefully we in the West are recalling the 20th century and Hitler.
("Alex" Pretti, not "Joe")
Thanks for raising the point about collective action in the Ezra talk and now.
Focal points help overcome these problems, as you know. Carney invoking Havel at Davos was a clear attempt to create a focal point. It was highly successful, esp internationally, and Carney is perfectly-situated for this role, he's been planning this moment since before he even got into the race.
Now Goode and Pretti have created another focal point, domestically. The two reinforce each other: Italian politicians protest ICE at the Olympics, Trump skips the Super Bowl so as not to be booed and heckled in front of the entire world: focal points.
This is a moment to pull on every lever. No pausing to regroup, no waiting to see responses, step into the space they are currently vacating and then push even harder from there. Today we demand Noem, Miller, and Bondi all go. If that doesn't happen then starting making deals with congressional Republicans: what do they need to swing the Speakership to a Democrat?
Thank you - I can't figure out how I did that, but fixed.
Np, no one can keep everything straight these days, you're staying much more focused than most and I appreciate it.
If there was a Democratic leader, this might be possible, but Congress is devoid of such a creature in the House or Senate so far. Hakeem Jeffries didn't even try to whip votes when it came to I.C.E. funding. Schumer is a creature of compromise which is inappropriate for this time in our country.
Now is not the time for this, sorry.
Considering the thing you're advocating will never happen without new Democratic leadership, it does seem like the right time for a conversation about their failure to meet the historical moment. They don't have the juice.
I'll be direct: you are mansplaining politics to political science PhDs right now. Please stop.
Follow AOC's lead. She is not spending her time attacking Schumer, she is reminding people that party leadership reflects the party membership. If we want better leadership we need to build out the party. Henry has been writing about the need to expand the coalition for a year now. He is right. To defeat global fascism last time took a coalition spanning from Churchill to Stalin. AOC and Schumer are nowhere close to either pole on that spectrum.
Stay focused: the problem is the GOP. If we unite behind Schumer then he can shut down the government and potentially be on a path towards ending this before too many more bodies pile up.
If we cut out Schumer's knees the moderates will defect and we'll lose more ground.
You don't have to like him but this is not the time.
Academics are so funny because they think starting off an argument with "mansplaining politics to political science PhDs" is convincing and not something that makes you come across as completely unhinged.
I'll be direct: That's one of the funniest ways I've ever seen someone start off a comment in a Substack comment section. The stakes here couldn't be lower. There's an obvious contradiction between your self-seriousness and your clear insecurity. Self-awareness is not your strength.
Anyway all you're doing is theorycrafting and imagining that Schumer is a different person than who he is. My problem is not necessarily that Schumer is not AOC, or that he's a moderate. My problem is that Schumer does not have the juice. He does not have the verve. None of what you're armchair quarterbacking is going to occur with Schumer at the helm.
I'd be OK with a moderate in this current moment if they were an effective opposition. It doesn't matter if "we unite behind Schumer" - what does that mean? Us as in, people who post shit on the internet that no one reads? He doesn't care! It's up to Schumer to step up to the moment, and he's not. And he's not going to! He sucks!
Be well.
I think not unrelated--as HF pointed out a couple weeks ago it's important to give Republicans a place to land if they jump ship.
I agree that now it is not the time. But I have been hearing that now it is not the time since Trump got first elected, and Schumer is still there. Maybe, when it is the time, the political scientists can get together and let the rest of us know.
Sure. The time is some point after progressives elect 20+ senators. Right now you've got 1, and he is only sometimes in the party. That help? Nobody's gonna give you a goddamn thing, you have to earn it. This is politics, you have to mobilize power.
We've got a good chance with Sherrod Brown, let's get to work on that and build from there. If Platner wins the primary and gets in that's another, and now we're getting close to a caucus that has to be taken more seriously. Hopefully some day soon AOC takes over from Schumer, but right now we have to get behind the guys we have.
Shumer's cleaved off DHS funding from the rest of the spending bill and got some pressure off Minneapolis. That's a big win already this week. Let's see what else he can get before we start getting pissed.
I guess we will find out tomorrow. As for me, I've written numerous letters to my senator without any response. He's one of those who sided with Republicans on the BBB that killed healthcare for millions with Senator Schumer. I've also called his office multiple times. As of last Friday, he hadn't issued an opinion, according to his staff. WTH? Hopefully, he will have made up his mind by now. I have no faith that he will do the right thing. This is his last tour so he has nothing to lose.
It's a great reminder of the imperative that we continue to Rise! Resist! ✊✊✊
The alpha and omega of Trump's approach to governance is control of the media narrative, with himself at the center. Noem has gone all-in on generating content meant to make herself and Trump look "strong" but each cabinet member is on that page, except Vought. Being unable to mount a Minneapolis-sized presence in more than a few cities isn't seen as a weakness since the goal is a steady stream of controlled content, not subjugation. Plus meeting Miller's insane deportation quota numbers.
Trump's TACO on Greenland was a stalemate, not a failure, because Trump lost nothing (in his mind) while making himself the center of attention and speculation in media coverage. There will be other chances to make a Deal with Denmark. They can't exercise the power they brag about in fact, but they ultimately don't care about that. Trump and his party have bet that controlling the virtual power of media perception is how they control the public and the world, backed by the systems the US has built over the last 80 years to exercise de facto control. Pure short-term thinking.
I think that makes them too Machiavellian. They mistake controlling the virtual power of media perception for the real thing. That is a weakness.
Trump wants adulation first and money second (or maybe money first ...) but both more than power. Power's nice, but its appeal is that it gets him the adulation and the money.
They're losing control of the media narrative too. Even Faux Newspeak was questioning the rationale for Petti's murder.
I think the Democrats message position should be:
We would already have full border security, and a court system capable to adjudicate all the immigrants' claims, peaceful and properly funded, if Congress had passed comprehensive immigration reform like Biden wanted (and every other President before him.) Instead, Trump told Republicans to reject the bill (sponsored by a conservative Republican, Lankford!), to get himself re-elected and make a murderous mess.
The funding demand now: Noem out, Miller out, Bovino out, Bondi out, Epstein files released, health care funded, and a special prosecutor established for Goode and Pretti and other abuses.
While those arguments are happening start making side offers to House Republicans who might be willing to switch to independent to dump Johnson.
What is likely happen in the meantime is that the Trump administration will try cosmetically to defuse the crisis by replacing the chain of command (Bovino already on the outs), announcing "investigations," and the usual hand-waving. In other words, standard fake damage-control by any White House.
What is unusual is that they were too incompetent to be ready to do this. Instead, they were falling out with blame for each other: from Politico, via Taegan Goddard's Political Wire:
“Key figures in the administration are pointing fingers at one another. Trump is blaming Border Patrol chief Greg Bovino. Bovino’s boss Kristi Noem is blaming Stephen Miller, per Axios. Miller is blaming Border Patrol. And Border Patrol is big mad at ICE.”
Yes, it's perfect. The circular firing squad has been activated at the same time that they are still lashing out at everyone. The split screen is impeccable, better than Watergate.
So now is the time to push, see if we can't knock down a bunch of dominos at once.
All they're doing so far is rearranging a few of the deck chairs. Bovino out, Holman in. Noem and DHS investigators out, Patel and FBI investigators in. Nothing of substance, nothing systemic, has changed, nor will change, unless the powers that put Trump on the throne feel the consequences of what they created in no uncertain terms. Someone in the Trump administration will be thrown under the bus. Probably Kristi Noem as she seems the most vulnerable. Maybe Bovino too. And they will take a step back for a moment, while at the same time never ever admitting they are wrong. Their arrogance, their greed, their hubris, their fear of showing weakness prevents this from ever happening. The power behind the throne is reckless beyond belief, as their choice of Trump, and allowing all of Trump's choices of all the incredibly unqualified cartoon-character-like villains -- Miller, Noem, Bessent, Hegseth, Kennedy, Bondi, Rubio, Lutnick, etc. -- that fill out his administration are proof of that. For what the patriots of Minnesota have done to lead to meaningful change, I wholeheartedly agree that the meaningful changes need to be institutionalized within both the opposition political party, within the law, and within the economic system. To say the least, that's an uphill battle, when the opposition party is dominated by a bunch of Quislings, the supreme court is dominated by a bunch of Federalist wannabees, and the entire political system is dominated by those select few who speak the only language that our politicians understand, that of the almighty dollar. It's no wonder that the elite who created this mess are constructing bunkers, islands, and space ships to escape it.
Looking forward to the podcast. I am worried that chance is playing a significant role. Trump overplayed his hand in Greenland, helping to galvanize European and Canadian resistance, but retains the option of turning to Iran. Seems a pretty obvious move and has been set in motion. Greenland is kind of like Minneapolis, if it weren’t for an overwhelmingly white face of resistance, lots of video evidence and two public executions one after another, public opinion might not have turned so hard. But they still have huge amounts of money and the ability to pursue deportations at scale but more under the radar. And it is easy to think of potential incidents that might play out more favorably for them. Maybe the extravagance of the Trump shitshow will doom it like Athens (which wasn’t such a great outcome), but the base does not seem to be wavering yet and until it does the Republican Party probably won’t either.
They might not >seem< to be wavering yet, but they're on pretty shaky ground. They could disintegrate at any moment.
Economic pain would probably be the thing to make the ground under their feet disintegrate, or a military escapade that seriously backfires, but the economy so far is fairly resilient. A lot of fiscal stimulus, monetary policy poised to accommodate, oodles of private debt. But mostly I’m just in a sour mood.
Yeah, I can't blame you for that. I think we're all in a sour mood these days.
But then, all the more reason for us to continue to Rise! Resist! ✊✊✊
There's no question that cruelty is a weakness, or at least a sign of it. With ever growing, sustained pushback, sooner or later, the regime will fold. We're already seeing cracks in the facade. For example, Trumpkopf sending Tom "Fifty-Grand" Homan to Minnesota instead of Puppy Murderer Krusty Gnoem. More dominoes will fall as we approach November's One Big Beautiful Blue Tsunami, and the regime panics. Admittedly, I'm not by any means 100% confident of this, but it seems to be where we're headed.
Thank you for this. I read the Seva Gunitsky piece, and his description of the present moment - through Carney and Thucydides - brought me a measure of solace by making my own inchoate analysis more grounded. It has not been easy to maintain my Pollyanna status that things will get better, but his and your writing helped a lot. I'm old enough to have been shocked that Nixon got reelected even after it was clear he was, in fact, a crook (the least of his sins), followed by a few years of progress until Reagan was elected. A long strange trip it's been.
Odd to call the stagflationary 1970s a few years of progress. Most of use were much better off in 1986 than 1976.
I was thinking of civil rights and respect for the rule of law, plus respect for the press and the value of journalism and free speech.
I don’t recall those things being in danger in the 80s.
Common Knowledge
Your conversation with Ezra was SO illuminating, thank you. Thank you, as well, for introducing me to the term “catchfart.” *filing it away for future use*
Cruelty is the point, but cruelty isn’t who we are. I’m currently reading Humankind: A Hopeful History by Rutger Bregman. If we learn who we are, we are better prepared to counter those who say we have no chance, that we have no cards. Collectively, we have more cards — and their Trump card turns out to be a joker.
We definitely need to be planning now for the future, but coalition building and sustaining is the #1 concern. Do we want democracy or domination as our form of governance? One important way to help plan for the future is to donate to Run for Something. I think if that organization gains greater power, we have a better chance of a stronger and more sustainable coalition.
Two!? Be well. - B.
Appreciate your thoughts here. One note -- I think you mean Alex Pretti
thanks - already fixed.
SUCH great writing ! Thank you very very much !!! Take a good look this for February ! RESIST AND UNSUBSCRIBE - OH YEAH ! https://youtu.be/Vx0M6Vg2cs4?si=1reRymwVXDtlvYc8
"The weak do not need to suffer so long as there are enough of them and they can get organized."
The Chinese Communist Party figured this out - prevent organization. But then, their country has a long history of the Mandate of Heaven being withdrawn from the Emperor.
Hopefully we in the West are recalling the 20th century and Hitler.
[makes note]
"Catchfarts" - is that a handy Irish term, or did you make it up?