33 Comments
User's avatar
Kathleen Weber's avatar

Let's all decide not to live within the lie. If Trump can rename cabinet positions, so can we. The Department of Homeland Security is now the Department of Domestic Warfare. After all, he told us, "The enemy is within." 

Zev Trachtenberg's avatar

Was this an emperor's new clothes moment--i.e. where the commonly held version of reality is challenged, by being shown to be artificial, i.e. the product of common agreement?

Winston Smith London Oceania's avatar

Trumpkopf has had many, many emperor's new clothes moments throughout his entire measly existence. And he will have many more to come. Too many.

Karel Tripp's avatar

Is this why Air Force 1 turned back before setting out again? They would have heard Carney’s address and the overwhelming reaction he received with a standing ovation. Either Trump did not want to go to Davos under those circumstances or his staff thought it best not to go. It was a takedown reenforced by the flotsam and jetsam who signed up to his Peace Board, without key European support. It was a humiliating experience for him and why his vitriol is so forcibly directed at Europe, with the imposition of 100% tariffs on Canada.

A gentle breeze in the forest's avatar

For Trump, this was undoubtedly a major political setback. His so-called "peace committee" not only lacked substantive influence but also failed to gain crucial European support. This diplomatic failure can be seen as a public embarrassment, even a humiliation. Perhaps because of this, his rhetoric and policies towards Europe and its allies have become increasingly tough, such as threatening to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Canada.

Winston Smith London Oceania's avatar

I thought it was because they had to change Trumpkopf's diaper.

Martha Ture's avatar

This is what I commented on Adam Tooze's Chartbook #431 on Davos just now:

1. Hypothesis #1: Davos would be largely irrelevant.

Question: Irrelevant or relevant to what and to whom?

Irrelevant/relevant to northern tier public policy for the coming year?

Irrelevant/relevant to parts of the planet where resources are extracted for some other period of time?

Both?

Does "Davos is largely irrelevant" mean the global capital CEO's don't make global public policy? That would mean that their replacement of consent of the governed with Project 2025, for a recent example, isn't significant public policy. We know that's not the case.

Or does it mean that Davos is just a pricey party - a dog and pony show like a political party convention, in which the decisions have already been made?

2. Hypothesis #2: Davos might potentially be a significant forum for coordinating global capital in the face of the MAGA rampage.

Question: So I am trying to envision this scenario. Jamie Dimon, Larry Fink, Ursula van der Leyden, Christine Lagarde et. al., were emailing and talking in the weeks prior to Davos and agreed on a global capital policy that would destroy the political and financial power of the MAGAns?

Why would they do that?

Does that indicate a policy disagreement in the global capital community? That would be interesting, if so. Is there disagreement about the Trump tariff debacle?

I don't square them feeling intimidated with their being able to tell Trump back off on Greenland.

It doesn't appear so - it appears that the capital people told Trump and his gang that if the GOP want further donations they had better back off on tariffs and on Greenland, now.

Why did the capitalists keep their mouths shut at Davos about climate, democracy, inequality, the EU, NATO, Ukraine, Sudan, China, where they are heavily invested?

Because they like it like that and have no complaints with the MAGA/Trump policy of destroying the regulatory apparatus?

As for tariffs - protectionism - that will be on the agenda at the next World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial Conference, in Cameroon, March 26-29, as will be the way the WTO makes its decisions. The WTO currently takes decisions by consensus among its 166 members.

The WTO is weak and ineffectual and may not survive.

The headshaking WTF is there is no visible connection between Davos and ICE, between Davos and people in Minnesota rebelling against ICE, between Davos and the destruction of democracy, between Davos and inequality, between Davos and the hastening destruction of Earth's ability to sustain life, a destruction manifest in floods, fires, droughts, melting ice sheets, biodiversity collapse, costs that destroy governments, all of which - all of it - is caused by capital's mining of the planet as "resources." Do Larry Fink and his toady think that Trump will soon die and it will all be over soon? Or that they really don't care?

WTF, WEF?

Winston Smith London Oceania's avatar

They really don't care. They are, like Trumpkopf himself, psychopaths. They're only interested in grabbing up for themselves everything there is to grab, as quickly as possible. If it means human extinction, so be it.

Stephen Saperstein Frug's avatar

"This is why Kearney’s speech was so remarkably efficacious" Type for Carney?

Henry Farrell's avatar

thanks. Will fix. I usually read through again 5 minutes after writing to look for typos, but have been processing the unrelated news that happened in the meantime.

Stephen Saperstein Frug's avatar

I get it. Hey, I just managed to misspell the word "typo", and I only had three words to add!

Winston Smith London Oceania's avatar

Thus proving that the tactic of "flooding the zone" works!

Cheez Whiz's avatar

The power that Trump is weilding, the reason we are all forced to take him seriously, is the momentum of 80 years of careful work by sucessive US governments to build a world order under the control of the US (buy Farrell's book!). That momentum, combined with his narcissism, is what gives the veneer of inevability, but its an illusion. Things like SWIFT, the deep integration and dependency NATO and Europe have on US support, and dominance of the US military aren't going to collapse any time soon, but they are at their peak and can only diminish going forward. Trump's cabinet are all focused on appearance and social media dominance, but these contribute nothing to keeping the machinery running. And in Minneapolis their media control is a shambles. The 1 thing they are supposedly good at is collapsing.

Bill Benzon's avatar

I second your recommendation of Chwe. I discovered his work years ago and find it fascinating. I seem to recall that the book had a fascinating argument about the price of Super Bowl advertising.

Tom Wilson's avatar

Having grown up during the days of the Vietnam War and lives lost on the home front battling that insane war, I am perplexed by the importance given to a bunch of elites playing performative politics in a high class mountain resort. At least the focus on Justin Trudeau and his "new love" recognized the gathering for what it was - a place to show off in front of an audience watching the parade. Admiration for the structure and composition of a speech saying what we all already know is better than admiration for a leaders socks, but not by much.

The true battles in this war against the autocracy of Trump are happening on the streets like those in Minneapolis. Lives, not ideals, are being sacrificed and are truly the stakes in this battle and it has a great chance of descending into all out war …

Paul's avatar

To pick up the theme of royal power and happy vassals vs slaves: I think we might compare Trump's speech to James I assertion of absolute power in his speech to parliament on 1609-10. The first shot across the bows in a long process of realignment. And a departure from the more pragmatic and non-confrontational approach of Elizabeth I.

Ronald Raadsen's avatar

Trump is beginning to discipline Carney and Canada. Too many are focused on the short-term results. Trump and many Americans, definitely. The EU and Canada are signaling long-term intentions. The US is going to be in a situation like Soviet Russia, where everyone had left the party and the only one in attendance was solitary Russia.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-canada-carney-china-tariffs-5079e910df071b45d2b16949efb8f11a

Stephen Bosch's avatar

This effort to "discipline" Canada is going to go nowhere. We are tired of this crap.

I disagree with Henry that this isn't a victory for Europe. Davos was pivotal. The Europeans cannot unsee what they saw. The game is up.

Ronald Raadsen's avatar

I think it **may** go that way. He has backed down before. But also, he is a person that doesn't forget a grievance, however slight. If there is a trade war with Canada, it will be costly and painful for the US. I don't think that matters for Trump. Being perceived as weak, losing power and influence, his legacy...Perhaps. Considering all that has happened, I think the other countries have tired of being slapped around, decided to take a stand. They are changing their long game. How that pans out in the short term is uncertain.

Tim Long's avatar

"... a putative collective understanding that countered the alternative collective understanding that Trump wanted to impose upon the world." And / or Trump, acting on the wishes of Project 2025, V Putin, and their transnational financialist mafia, to make Capital the force to which we all kneel before. Or, to use a darker, older name: Mammon.

Tim Long, Just Up the Hill from Lock 15.

Gerben Wierda's avatar

Another good piece. I too noticed the link between Carney's speech and Underground Empire (yes: get that book, it is really good).

The ritual being for the shared knowledge of the onlookers is a convincing perspective. I have to think of Ludwig WIttgenstein's analysis that language is based on *shared* experiences, and I have taken that analogously to "culture is based on shared convictions". These rituals are events that have a strong influence on that sharing.of convictions. For the audience (across the world), Carney's convictions made a hundred times the impact of Trump's. Hence: Trump now threatens Canada with 100% tariffs over doing a deal with Chine after having a done a deal with China himself.

And Trump has cemented it by immediately betraying the allies that fought with the US in Afghanistan and Iraq after the US invoked NATO article 5, by lying about their fighting. These other countries and their veterans will not be satisfied by anything but apologies. Of which Trump is incapable. So, damage done. And damage done to GOP politicians who do not apologise for Trump in his place. This betrayal is so horrid.

PS. Typo: Kearney -> Carney

Laura Creighton's avatar

The United States doesn't have one super-rich capitalist class. It has at least 2, and they hate each other, and have been fighting each other for power and dominance for decades. And they have various industrial hangers on, and the US State Department vs the CIA, and so on and so forth all involved, as is no news to the author of _Underground Empire_. There is very little that they can agree on, besides "taxing the rich is bad". Thus the ritual may not have been about Trump but about who has won the battle of the super-rich, and if the side that you wrote about in _Underground Empire_ is the one that is hoisting the white flag -- "globalism is over" then I, for one, will be very glad to see it. It was very hard for me to listen to Carney, arch-globalist, embodiment of so much of what I dislike give this amazing speech in as complete a 'the leopard has changed his spots' moment as I can recall happening, well, ever. The Cognitive dissonance was astonishing -- but then perhaps that was the point. Who better to announce the surrender of the old world order to this audience?

Gerben Wierda's avatar

Or you could see it positively as Carney having been forced to confront the uncomfortable truth of the risk-weaknesses of simplistic globalisation and having learned.

John Gregory's avatar

and anyone responsible for governing Canada has to be aware of the vast economic presence of the US - Canada is or has been to some extent an economic colony of the US - and has to start looking around for counterbalances. Pierre Trudeau in the early 1970s was looking for a third way (i.e. not the US and not the traditional colonizer, Britain), and successive governments of different parties have tried to find a method of reducing dependence on the US.

Brian Mulroney in the 1980s decided to grasp the nettle and promote free trade with the US (building on a managed market for auto production created in the 1960s). That worked more or less, with downsides that were predicted (though denied by Mulrony and other free traders) ... up to Trump's agreeing to a slightly revised NAFTA in 2018.

So Carney did not have much choice but to look in his turn for a third way, particularly when the US has fallen under the spell of a demented narcissist with a bizarre love of tariffs. Carney has been a globalizer, and an environmentalist, but has had to deal with permanent realities of Canada as well as the (one hopes) temporary madness of Trump.

Laura Creighton's avatar

Yes, it could. I'm not up for that much optimism, but I would be delighted to be wrong about this.

Lee A. Arnold's avatar

Wednesday morning January 21, the Telegraph published a column by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard with this headline:

"Trump has crossed all lines: it is time to cut off his global credit card.

America has lost its credibility. The only thing that can stop the president is the bond market"

I am going to guess that Trump's Davos team was reading this by lunchtime.

Received wisdom (and Trump's own working assumption) is that the U.S. is the world's indispensable market for goods and for capital investment, so it (i.e., he) can afford to throw its weight around. There's also a corollary meme arising in the financial newspapers, that investors will have to threaten capital flight from the U.S. a little harder every next time, to fight Trump.

But I wonder. Trump is a very shortsighted guy and just maybe he couldn't imagine that the threat of capital fight, which caused him to reverse himself on tariffs earlier last year, would return, in response to more or less a geopolitical security issue. But he may have enough neurons left to realize that there's no one to bailout a U.S. gov't default, in the way that he found angels to survive his own bankruptcies.

Stephen Bosch's avatar

I don't think he does any of his own thinking anymore. The reversals come from people who know how to handle him, after they pull him aside.

Alex Tolley's avatar

Evidence has been increasing since last year that Trump's actions were causing US bond rates to rise. Some of that was interpreted as tariff-induced inflation. Another interpretation is capital flight. This latter is now being emphasized. Germany is floating the idea of repatriating its gold stocks in NY bank vaults. There is talk of Europe building up Euro-denominated bonds to invest in rather than US dollar bonds. China has been quietly selling off its US bonds. We will know something is amiss if the US tries to prevent capital flight by fiat, rather than market mechanisms.

As for the wealthy, let's see how Dimon handles Trump's threat to sue J P Morgan Chase. If Trump is seen to back down, that just might change some minds about bending the knee.

Power can be an illusion. I recall how the Soviet threat, still apparently great in the 1980s, suddenly collapsed. The US is certainly more militarily and economically powerful than the USSR ever was, but its weaknesses are already being exposed by China. The US cannot seriously expect to fight and win resource wars around the planet, especially when the divide-and-conquer approach starts to fail.

Winston Smith London Oceania's avatar

Trumpkopf really is a simpleton. Add dementia to that and, well, you know the rest.

Peter Dorman's avatar

I get the point about ritual as shared experience, a coordination-building event. But interpreting Davos that way strikes me as way too simplistic. Davos is more and less than that. It is more in the sense that a significant swath of the global capitalist class comes to the same place at the same time and can discuss their interlocking and competing interests behind the scenes, a sort of Burning Man for the .001%. It is less insofar as it is, in its public guise, largely performative. That is, the issues and proclamations have been largely worked out in advance, and Davos is where the scripts are read. But yes, Carney disrupted this show, and, as far as I can tell, his speech was not anticipated.

But another point is, in my opinion, even larger: Greenland is greatly misunderstood as an "issue". Its importance to Trump lies partly in his perverse psychology (I will be vindicated by my conquests) and partly in a politics of domination. That is, his advisors believe that enough people want to vicariously experience the sense of domination and triumph that visual demonstrations of them will produce a sort of democratic warrant. (I speculated in one my Substacks that Palantir-ish tech accomplices of Trump may have a back door in social media accounts they can exploit to test video clips and other content on volatile disengaged voters.)

That's the positive side. The implicit significance of centering Greenland, even temporarily, is that it is so patently absurd and based on evident falsehoods that it removes any possibility of negotiation as that term is normally understood. What is there to talk about? Trump is signaling his demands are not subject to appeals to evidence, reason or even self-interest. It calls on other countries to simply debase themselves. He knows they will protest, and he will go on to some other obsession. (At least in foreign policy, his administration is ADHD.) Davos in that sense was just a backdrop. If there is a "long run" logic to this stream of senseless demands, it is that little mini-victories can be snatched here and there, and meanwhile other countries will be just worn down.

I could be wrong about the particular combination of madness and purpose I'm attributing to this outfit. It's all speculative. We'll see.